16 January 2009

A Third Runway for Heathrow?

Geoff Hoon, the transport secretary has announced that Heathrow will get a third runway. Building should start in 2015 and be complete by 2019. there have been news reports that the government will speed up the planning process so that this runway might be ready in 2015 but that surely is on the understanding that any legal challenges can be dealt with quickly and the words "quickly" and "our legal system" don't seem to go together. So is this going to happen?
Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are against it and so, we were told earlier, were about 50 Labour M.P’s. After the announcement, it was said that some those 50 had been swayed by concessions on the environment and landing patterns.
Whether it is necessary to have a third terminal or not, it seems to me unlikely that it is going to happen at least in the next six years. Why?
Because it would require Labour to be re-elected in the elections that are less than eighteen months away. That seems unlikely at the moment. If there is a hung parliament and they rely on the LibDems it would seem unlikely that the LibDems could reverse their thoughts and agree to the runway. And if the Conservatives are elected, it seems that David Cameron or Therese Villiers, the shadow transport secretary couldn’t change their staunchly argued views or such a short period.
So it is possible the go-ahead is probably not going to get anywhere until after the 2015 election.

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15 December 2008

Airline Survival;- According to Paddy Power

The Advertising Standards Authority has criticised Paddy Power, the Irish based bookmakers from advertising its betting service on which airline would go bust next. And I half sort of agree with the ASA.
The problem with betting like this is that it can become a self perpetuating philosophy. If there is a lot of money placed on an airline going bust people might think that someone has inside information and the airline must be on the skids. If it is publicly quoted, the shares might side; if it is privately owned, creditors might demand quicker payment or cash up front.
Up till about a month ago you could look at the Paddy Power website and get odds on a number of airlines and their chances of going bust. I see that has been removed. And over the period I looked at it, only one of the airlines did go. A perpetual favourite to go bust was Alitalia which this week arose from the ashes as… Alitalia with exactly the same colour scheme. So even there paddy power wasn’t really right.
On the other hand, no-one wants to be in the position of booking a flight on an airline that isn’t going to be around when we want to fly. Or even worse, on an airline when we want to return home. The airline though, has a responsibility to its shareholders and staff to try and keep going so it can’t turn around and say that it has steeply declining passengers booking or creditors at the door or suppliers wanting to be paid in advance. As I said earlier, if that were to happen, the collapse of an airline becomes a self-perpetuating philosophy.
So as I wrote a few weeks ago, a bond scheme for airline passengers should be instituted and quickly. Certainly before next Summer’s holidays get booked. £1 on every ticket, it has been estimated, will be enough. Come on Mr Hoon. As the minister responsible for transport, do something.

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